Your Project Behaves Like a Hurricane--Forecast It Like One

Key takeaways
  • How to use probabilistic forecasting to better answer the question "When Will It Be Done?"
  • The simple data you need to collect
  • A live demonstration of how to do probabilistic forecasting. We will come up with a release plan as a group in 5 minutes.
  • An understanding of how to immediately implement some of these practices.

Do your projects seemingly spin up out of nowhere, strike when least expected, and leave a trail of destruction in their wake? Though the butt of many jokes, weather forecasting—and in particular hurricane forecasting—has gotten surprisingly good over the past few decades. This increased accuracy is mainly due to the rigorous application of proven techniques like Monte Carlo Simulation and Continuous Forecasting. In this talk we will explore some of those practices and discuss how you might employ them to make your projects more predictable. We will walk through some real-world examples that will explain how to get you up and running with methods immediately. You wouldn’t want a little thing like bad forecasting get in the way of you delivering your projects on time, would you?

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