Thursday 10.00-10.50

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"The only sure thing about forecasts is that they are WRONG" - James P. Womack and Daniel T. Jones. Estimates have been the bane of software development and programmers for decades. Managers/Customers want to know: When will it be done? How much will it cost? Programmers are told "We won't hold you to the estimate", and yet they often are. It's my contention that estimates are not useful for this purpose, and even worse they misinform the decisions they are meant to support. Do we really need estimates? Is simply "getting better" at estimates worthwhile? Can we live without them? Will things be better without them? I don't have answers for you, but I've worked with "no estimates" for over 4 years and I'm still alive. I want to explore the idea of estimates, why they are pervasive in the programming world, how they might be harmful, and see if we can start a dialog about finding a better way to make decisions.